The Durability Curve
Where value migrates when intelligence becomes cheap.
Structural analysis of where value migrates as AI commoditises lower layers. Companies, capital flows, and the bottlenecks that decide who keeps the margin.
Start here
Start Here: What Survives When The Surface Changes?
A short front door to the publication: the lens, the reader paths, and the free instruments for making better judgement usable.
Recent writing
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Your AI Agent Stack Is Solving The Wrong Problem
The real setup is not MCP servers, skills, memory files, and subagents. It is the contract stack that decides what an agent may know, do, prove, escalate, and lose.
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The Engine Underneath Hard Decisions
Eight stages turn hidden structure into durable knowledge. Most teams run three of them and call it understanding. The other five are where compounding hides.
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The Five Laws of Durable Systems
What still has a job after the change? Five tests for seeing what is likely to survive.
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The SpaceX IPO Is Not What You Think You're Buying
The filing will not just price rockets. It will reveal which layer public investors actually own.
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AI Made You Faster. It Did Not Make You Safer.
The strange thing about the AI productivity boom is that the people getting faster are not always getting more secure. Speed is becoming the surface. Proof is moving somewhere else.
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The 90-Day Canopy Audit
A roadmap can look productive while most of the work is easy to displace. Run the Substrate Map on the last 90 days and force the next planning decision to change.