2023202420252026 GPT-3.5GPT-4GPT-4oGPT-5Opus 4.8 ARCHITECTURE the substrate · compounds  → OUTPUT per model · commoditises  → CROSSOVER the durability thesis  → DURABLE VALUE-CAPTURE ↑ the margin a release keeps · not raw capability TIME · FRONTIER MODEL RELEASES →
The Durability Curve, Chart No. 1. Issue 21, built 2026·06·30.

Where value migrates when intelligence becomes cheap.

Releases by lab — tap to trace one

Structural analysis of where value migrates as AI commoditises the layers beneath it: the companies, the capital, and the bottlenecks that decide who keeps the margin.

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§01 · Start here Front door
◑ SYSTEMS & LAWS FIG · 2026·05·02 FIG·04 x:1317 y:735 x:050 y:050 FACE·02
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Start Here: What Survives When The Surface Changes?

A short front door to the publication: the lens, the reader paths, and the free instruments for making better judgement usable.
§02 · Recent writing 21 entries · 2026·06

Each piece tracks one layer of the stack: where the bottleneck sits now, who is capturing the margin, and what survives when it moves.

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§03 · The map

This is Chart No. 1. The whole field is being drawn as one map: the laws that hold, the series that branch from them, and every piece plotted where it belongs.

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