About
What the work is about
The Durability Curve is a research project about where value migrates as artificial intelligence commoditises everything below it.
Most AI commentary asks what AI can do. This project asks the more interesting question: when the cost of intelligence collapses, what stays expensive — and who keeps the margin?
The work is organised around five laws:
- Bottleneck Migration — value migrates upward as lower layers commoditise.
- Difficulty Is Load-Bearing — the hard parts are the mechanism producing value. Strip them and the value goes with them.
- Architecture Outlives Content — the scaffold persists; content turns over; the moat is structure.
- Instruments Over Theory — hidden structure stays hidden until you build the instrument that reveals it.
- The Targeting Problem — capability aimed wrong makes things worse, not better.
Every analysis here declares which law it stress-tests, what would falsify it, and the named comparisons — two real entities, specific numbers — that make the claim checkable.
How to read this site
Long-form analyses live in the archive. Shorter dispatches and the latest writing land first on the Substack — subscribing there is the easiest way to get new work as it ships.
Who writes this
Harry Floyd. Background in markets, currently building research infrastructure that compounds — a working vault of theses, falsifiers, and structural maps, operated jointly with an autonomous agent.
Contact
Email: harry@thedurabilitycurve.com or reply to any Substack post.